Wisconsin and Florida Elections Show Trump Vulnerabilities/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Recent elections in Wisconsin and Florida reveal cracks in Republican support under Trump’s leadership. Democrats gained significant ground in Wisconsin, while Florida GOP wins came with reduced margins. Elon Musk’s heavy spending and Trump’s aggressive federal overhaul stirred backlash among voters.
Trump’s Early Warning Signs in 2025 Elections: Quick Looks
- Democrats secured a high-profile victory in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race.
- Trump-backed conservative Brad Schimel lost despite $21M in support, including from Elon Musk.
- Florida Republicans retained House seats but saw major drops in vote margins.
- Wisconsin voters cited opposition to Trump and Musk’s influence as reasons for the liberal win.
- The election marks the first major public response to Trump’s second-term governance style.
- GOP turnout faltered in areas where Trump wasn’t directly on the ballot.
- Florida’s Randy Fine underperformed Trump’s previous margin by 14 percentage points.
- Voters showed discontent over Trump’s federal downsizing and Musk’s political donations.
- Democrats interpret these results as early momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms.
- GOP leaders urge caution in drawing broad national conclusions from these races.
Trump Faces Early Political Warning Signs in Wisconsin and Florida: Deep Look
A series of closely watched elections in Wisconsin and Florida has sent an early signal to Republicans and President Donald Trump as he begins his second term. With Trump accelerating efforts to downsize the federal government and billionaire Elon Musk playing an unprecedented political role, voters delivered mixed — and in some cases troubling — messages for the GOP.
The spotlight was on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race, where Trump-endorsed conservative judge Brad Schimel, backed by $21 million in support from Musk and allied groups, lost decisively to liberal Judge Susan Crawford. The loss in a state Trump carried just months earlier was a stark indicator of voter discontent.
The implications were clear: while Republicans maintained congressional strongholds in Florida, they did so with notably diminished support. Both GOP candidates underperformed Trump’s own margins from the 2024 election, highlighting cracks in the Republican base even in the most favorable districts.
This trio of elections served as the first major public verdict on Trump’s return to power — and the feedback was sobering. In Wisconsin, a traditional swing state, Democrats rallied not just around a judicial candidate but against Trump’s policies and Musk’s involvement. Crawford’s victory, by approximately 9 percentage points, represented a major shift from Trump’s 0.8-point win last year.
In particular, voters in key counties moved left. Sauk County, a bellwether region that had narrowly supported Trump in November, swung 14 points toward the liberal candidate. Suburban counties around Milwaukee, once reliable Republican territories, also shifted, signaling a potential realignment in the state’s political landscape.
Voters in Waunakee, a mixed political town near Madison, made their sentiments clear. Linda Grassl, a retired nurse, said her vote for Crawford was driven by opposition to Trump’s early presidential actions.
“This is our chance to say no,” she said.
Many voters also criticized Musk’s outsized influence. Antonio Gray, a Milwaukee security guard, said,
“I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in. Let voters choose for themselves.”
Despite this, some Republican leaders downplayed the results. Former Governor Scott Walker emphasized the challenge of energizing Trump supporters for a judicial race.
“If you’re someone who turned out for Trump because you feel forgotten, you don’t typically vote in off-cycle elections,” he said, cautioning against applying these results too broadly to the national stage.
In Florida, Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis held onto their seats in Congress, yet the celebrations were muted. Fine’s margin in the 6th District dropped by 14 points compared to former Representative Mike Waltz’s 33-point win. Patronis, running in a deep-red district vacated by Matt Gaetz, also underperformed the previous GOP showing.
Democrats took note. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries likened Fine’s race to a Republican competing in Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s liberal New York district — something previously unthinkable.
“Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points,” Jeffries said. “This level of competition shows Trump’s vulnerability.”
For many Florida voters, Trump himself was the sole reason they turned out. Teresa Horton, 72, admitted she didn’t know much about the candidates.
“I just went with my ticket,” she said. Brenda Ray, 75, echoed the sentiment: “That’s all we’re looking for — someone who will vote with our president.”
Despite being outraised by their Democratic challengers, both Fine and Patronis survived. Still, the reduced margins concerned party insiders. Some saw this as a sign of waning enthusiasm without Trump’s name on the ballot.
Michael Whatley, Republican National Committee Chairman, spun the results positively, stating,
“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda.” But among GOP strategists, alarm bells are quietly ringing.
Charlie Kirk, conservative influencer and a key figure in the Wisconsin campaign, was blunt in his post-election assessment.
“We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” referring to low-propensity voters. He warned that without a new approach, Republicans would struggle in future special elections.
Looking ahead, Democrats are hopeful. The pattern of losing the White House and gaining in midterms is historically consistent. These early 2025 races suggest that with effective messaging and mobilization, Democrats could turn Trump’s aggressive style and elite alliances into a liability.
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