Wisconsin, Florida Races Tues. Test Trump’s Political Strength/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Florida will offer an early test of President Trump’s renewed political influence. A pivotal Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and two GOP-leaning House races in Florida are drawing national attention and record spending. Key counties in both states could signal the broader mood of voters in 2025.
Key Counties to Watch in Wisconsin, Florida Elections: Quick Looks
- Wisconsin Supreme Court race draws over $90 million in spending.
- Trump and Musk support conservative Brad Schimel; Democrats back Susan Crawford.
- Milwaukee and Dane counties crucial for Democratic margins in Wisconsin.
- GOP counting on strong showings in suburban “WOW” counties.
- Florida special elections in solid GOP districts test Democratic momentum.
- High Democratic fundraising contrasts with historically Republican voting patterns.
- Brown and Sauk counties in Wisconsin could reveal late momentum shifts.
- Early results in Escambia and Volusia may hint at Florida upsets.
Deep Look: What to Watch in Wisconsin and Florida’s 2025 Elections
Two months into his second term, President Donald Trump is already facing his first major political test. Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Florida will reveal how voters are responding to his leadership — and whether Democrats are poised to make gains despite Republican-leaning territory.
The most closely watched race is in Wisconsin, where an open seat on the state Supreme Court could tip the ideological balance of one of the most consequential judicial bodies in the nation. Meanwhile, two special congressional elections in Florida could impact the slim Republican majority in the U.S. House.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the key places to watch as results roll in on election night.
Wisconsin: Supreme Court Race and County-Level Battlegrounds
The nonpartisan but heavily politicized race for Wisconsin Supreme Court has drawn an eye-popping $90 million in spending. The stakes are high: control of the court, which could influence rulings on abortion access, redistricting, union rights, and election disputes.
Democratic Strongholds: Milwaukee and Dane Counties
Democrats rely on large turnout margins in Milwaukee County and Dane County (home to Madison) to offset rural and suburban Republican strength. In 2024:
- Kamala Harris won Milwaukee with 68% and Dane with 75% — but narrowly lost statewide.
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin ran slightly stronger in both counties and narrowly won.
- In the 2023 Supreme Court race, liberal Janet Protasiewicz won Milwaukee with 73% and Dane with 82%, propelling her to an 11-point statewide victory.
Expect Democrats to need similarly strong performances here for Susan Crawford to keep the court’s liberal majority.
Republican Strongholds: The “WOW” Counties
The GOP depends on big wins in Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha Counties—known as the “WOW” counties—located in Milwaukee’s suburbs. These counties consistently back Republican candidates:
- Trump, Schimel, and other Republicans have carried these counties in every major race since at least 2016.
- The size of Republican margins here is often decisive in tight statewide elections.
Toss-Up Signals: Brown County (Green Bay)
Brown County, anchored by Green Bay, typically leans Republican but is not a blowout. Trump earned just over 52% here in 2020 and 2024. However:
- Democratic Gov. Tony Evers carried Brown in 2018.
- Protasiewicz also won here in 2023, indicating Democratic potential.
If Crawford manages to win Brown County, it could signal momentum that extends statewide.
Swing Region: Sauk County
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a lesser-known but reliable bellwether:
- Democrats have won here in 8 of the last 10 major statewide elections.
- The exceptions? Trump in 2016 and 2024, both years he carried the state.
While not a major population center, if Schimel carries Sauk, it could hint at a Republican rebound.
Florida: GOP Strongholds Face Democratic Fundraising Surge
Special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts are being held to replace Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, both of whom joined Trump’s administration. These seats are historically Republican, but Democratic candidates have significantly out-fundraised their opponents.
Florida’s 1st District (Panhandle)
Trump won this district with 68% of the vote in 2024, and Gaetz earned 66% in his last House race. The area is one of the most reliably Republican in the country, particularly in:
- Walton County, where GOP margins are highest.
- Escambia County, which is more competitive but still Republican-leaning (Trump: 59%, Gaetz: 57%).
Any signs of Democratic inroads in Escambia could suggest GOP vulnerability, though an upset remains unlikely.
Florida’s 6th District (Atlantic Coast)
Trump won the 6th District with 65%, and Waltz with 67%, both strongest in Putnam County, where each earned about 74%. Yet Democrats are hoping to reduce those margins in:
- Volusia County, where Trump received 58% in 2024.
- Volusia was a Democratic stronghold from 1992 to 2008 but has since leaned red.
If Democrats gain ground in Volusia, it might indicate shifting suburban attitudes—especially important heading into 2026.
National Implications
These elections are being closely watched for what they say about:
- Trump’s political capital post-inauguration.
- Elon Musk’s influence through campaign spending.
- The strength of Democratic fundraising and voter mobilization.
- Judicial and legislative dynamics ahead of 2026.
If Schimel wins in Wisconsin, conservatives will regain control of a court that could determine future electoral rules. A Crawford win would lock in a liberal majority through 2028.
In Florida, even narrow GOP wins in solid districts could still signal Democratic energy and competitiveness in areas previously considered off-limits.
You must Register or Login to post a comment.